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MAJOR ISSUES BULLETIN

HOW MANY MORE CAN BRITAIN TAKE

Sir Andrew Green

[Chairman of MigrationWatch and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Syria.]

Daily Mail-December 27-2006

THE GOVERNMENT has taken a big risk. It has been forced by domestic political pressure to 'do something' about immigration from Romania and Bulgaria.

The Labour heartlands have had enough. The BNP are making inroads and the chairman of the Labour Party, Hazel Blears (herself a former Home Office minister, is clearly rattled. She is reported to have said recently that IMMIGRATION is set to EXPLODE

-as an ISSUE before the next General Election in a way 'unseen before in UK politics.'

Perhaps the Government should be applauded for making some effort, at last, to reduce IMMIGRATION.

The problem is that their measures WON'T WORK, so they can expect a continuous stream of negative news stories.

CRUNCH TIME is next MONDAY when Romania and Bulgaria become full members of the EU and their citizens acquire the right of free and unrestricted access to Britain.

Errors

ARE we about to see another wave of East European immigration?

WILL Bulgarian builders be hot on the heels of Polish plumbers?

HOW many will actually come?

AND how much does it matter?

This time round, the British Government is saying NOTHING about NUMBERS. Very wise. After their ABSURD errors over the MASSIVE inflow from Poland, nobody would believe then in any case.

taken together, Romania and Bulgaria add another 30 million to the EU. Officially their unemployment rates of eight to ten per cent are well below those of Poland at 15 per cent, but their people are even poorer.

With an average income in both countries that is less than a third of the average income in Britain, there is a RISK of considerable MIGRATION.

The Bulgarian government is playing all this down. It says that very few Bulgarians plan to emigrate and that, in any case, most of them prefer the warmer climes of southern Europe.

The catch here is that Greece and Italy might keep their labour markets CLOSED as they DID for the first eight new members.

If so, the UK will look much more attractive. With the Polish example before them, it is hard to believe that there will not be quite a few tempted by the thought of wage rates four or five times those at home in Romania and Bulgaria.

There is also the mystery of the Macedonians and Moldovans. Fifty thousand have lodged an application for Bulgarian passports and '20,000'foreigners'already have one. These are people with Bulgarian parents or grandparents who are entitled to Bulgarian nationality.

Why should there be this sudden rush of applications unless the whole purpose is to emigrate to the EU?

Very similar factors apply to the large number of Moldovans seeking a Romanian passport. As Moldova used to be a part of Romania, the numbers again are considerable.

So far, the only estimate of immigration to Britain is a guess by the Institute for Public Policy Research think-tank that

56,000

will come in the first year.[2007]

This assumes that the proportions will be similar to the first wave of eight countries. HOWEVER, , British Government research suggests that there is a close link between wealth per head and the likelihood of emigration from Eastern Europe to the UK.

If the Government's own methodology is applied to Romania and Bulgaria, the answer comes out at

180,000

-in the first year. That is a very unlikely scenario, but it serves to illustrate the degree of uncertainty.

Ironically, we might never know the true answer. NO RECORD is kept of who COMES and GOES from Britain.

From January 1-2007, Romanians and Bulgarians will not need a visa. like all other EU citizens, they will be able to show their passport and walk straight in. This time round there will not even be the registration scheme that applies to the first eight countries. The theory is that there will be a quota of 20,000 for low-skilled workers in agriculture and food processing while skilled workers will have to apply for a work permit.

There will be no restrictions whatever on the self-employed who have a right to work anywhere in the EU. This is a regime with more holes than a Swiss cheese.

All Romanians and Bulgarians have a right to come and live in Britain for three months. After that, they are supposed to move into a 'free movement category' such as worker, self employed, student, etc.

You do not have to be Einstein to work out that in that time you could either find a job on the black market or declare yourself self-employed and thus legally present in the country.

There are some who say that immigrant workers come to find jobs and that , if there are no jobs, they will not come.

There are two snags about that belief. First, strange as it might seem, IMMIGRANTS DO NOT FILL VACANCIES.

The Government repeatedly claims that they do, and that seems to be common sense. YET, despite net IMMIGRATION approaching

1,000,000

-over the past five years, vacancies in the British economy remain unchanged at

600,000

So the claim is demonstrably false.

Vacancies

THE REASON? Immigrants fill some vacancies but also generate additional demand and thus create new vacancies. So to argue vacancies, as the Government does is to promote an endless cycle of IMMIGRATION.

The second snag is that , if anyone accepts a low enough wage, they are likely to get a job. There are plenty of British workers earning £8-an-hour who could be replaced by East Europeans at the minimum wage of £5.50

We are already seeing that process on a limited scale. One such case hit the headlines earlier this month when 16 British glaziers were laid off, only to be replaced the following week by 16 East Europeans. If that trend should develop on any significant scale, the

GOVERNMENT WILL BE IN DEEP TROUBLE.

Yet it could well happen. The chairman of a large construction company was recently quoted as saying that his labour costs would be 20 per cent cheaper if he employed Polish sub-contractors.

He said that most of his competitors are now pricing at Polish rates and so he faces the prospect of putting British workers ,who have been with him for 25years , on the DOLE if he was to remain COMPETITIVE.

Myths

Are we as a country really happy, he asked, to put our own workers on the DOLE and USE cheaper labour from EUROPE?

For the time being, the Government can only hope for the best and keep repeating its MYTHS about the VALUE of this MIGRATION.

Unfortunately, MINISTERS' own figures show that 95% of the first wave of East Europeans are earning less than £8-an-hour.

As a result, they are paying HALF the amount of TAX and NATIONAL INSURANCE that a BRITISH WORKER pays. As long as they are mainly young, single and healthy, this need not matter too much - but none of us stay like that for ever.

despite the recent focus on immigration from Eastern Europe, the latest Government figures show that four out five immigrants are , in fact from OUTSIDE THE EU.

This underlines the fundamental point that the Government has allowed border controls to crumble, immigration to balloon and our social cohesion to be threatened.

All this has happened against the wishes of a large majority of the British people and, certainly, without consulting them. The day will come when they pay a heavy price for their disregard of deeply felt public concern.

SIR ANDREW GREEN is chairman of MigrationWatch and a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Syria.

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[Font altered-Bolding & Underlining used -Comments in brackets.]

JANUARY/07