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WHY GORDON BROWN should GO to the COUNTRY in OCTOBER 2007

Simon Heffer

[Daily Telegraph-January 3-2007]

Did you know that we have entered an election year?

It is a certainty Scotland and Wales choose their devolved assembles in May.

In the case of Scotland this could mean the bloodiest nose yet for New Labour, with the SNP - Scottish National Party hoping to celebrate the 300th anniversary of the UNION by BURYING IT.

Then there are District Council Elections in which the Conservative Party will no doubt do well , and the expectations of whose outcome it will soon start talking down as actively as possible. And of course, there will be the election for the Labour leadership: Though that may be a coronation. Finally there is the little matter of the 2007 General Election.

HANG ON, YOU CRY: doesn't he 2009? Can the hangover be that bad? Surely we are not even halfway through this parliament? And even if Labour imposes a new PRIME MINISTER on us during this year -as we are assured it will - then doesn't our wonderful unwritten constitution allow him to stay in power until the five-year-term secured by his predecessor has elapsed -as, indeed, John Major did as recently as `1990-92?

THAT IS ALL TRUE -except the bit about the hangover wrecking my chronology. For if Gordon Brown (and I obediently follow his party's assumption that he will be its next leader) wants to maximise his chances of a full MANDATE, I am in no doubt he should call an ELECTION at the EARLIEST practicable moment after his ascent of the Red Throne.

There is , I admit, a mountain to climb in this respect." He's about as risk-averse as the man from the PRU," one of his colleagues said to me yesterday "He's got all the daring of a Scottish accountant. HE WON'T DO IT."

INTERESTINGLY, both the main parties appear to be gripped by fear about the prospect, which in the end becomes self-cancelling. A former Tory front-bencher told me last week the "If Brown goes next year,

WE'RE UTTERLY SCREWED".

WHY? Because th4e whole CAMERON plan is predicted on having until the spring of 2009 to mount a challenge to end what would then be a dozen years of LABOUR MISRULE. It is going to take until then for it to have developed any policies, and to have communicated them to the

GENERAL PUBLIC.

[Well!-we warned Cameron that his cosy 'lets be friends -we agree with you Tony 'policy would be his Achilles heel as he gave the Government such an easy ride over the Iraqi War and much else. David Cameron has NOT the toughness or the ruthlessness to do the job. If the Conservatives want to have a chance they need to change their friendly stubborn mule for an energetic and determined thoroughbred horse without delay]

To continue

More to the point, it is also going to take until then for something resembling a serious NATIONAL Conservative Party machine to be put in place.

As I wrote here recently, there are large stretches of urban England where the PARTY barely exists, but where it must win seats if it is to stand any chance of forming a GOVERNMENT. It would be optimistic to suggest that such a structure would be in place by 2009, though there is a programme now under way (for the first time in years) to train local party organisers. There is no prospect though, though, of that particular ship being turned round during 2007.

Mr Brown's friends say the other reason he won't call a snap ELECTION is that the damage done to [NEW] LABOUR by the events of the past couple of years is still too serious for anyone to contemplate calling an ELECTION

"Bair is like a fur ball we have to spit out," one of them told me.

"Gordon needs a couple of years of good solid government behind him before he goes to the country."

That is , indeed, what Mr Brown appears to be paving the way for. The recent briefing about the change of tone we can expect when he takes over - more Stafford Cripps than the Bee Gees, with "austerity" the watchword is indicative. So perhaps Mr Brown's friends are right after all:

NO ELECTION THIS YEAR, OR EVEN NEXT.

This is what the TORIES are banking on. "Brown's a Coward," one frontbencher told me. "He always has been. He's nowhere to be seen when there's a crisis. he's waited years to be PRIME MINISTER. He's not going to risk the OFFICE the minute he gets it just to get his own MANDATE. After all the build-up, he doesn't want the humiliation of being

PRIME MINISTER

-for only a couple of months.

In the end, though, this will come down not so much to how risk-averse Mr Brown is, BUT to the extent of his self-knowledge and the wisdom of his closest advisers.

Would his chances of winning a MAJORITY be GREATER in the SUMMER or AUTUMN of 2009?

-than they would be in , say the AUTUMN of 2007?

How will Middle England feel about him after two years exposure to his particular brand of charm?

What will they think about the CRONIES with whom he will surround himself whether or not in a climate of self-imposed austerity?

Next month, the Commons will vote to agree new parliamentary boundaries, and the next ELECTION-whenever it comes -will be fought on them. Depending on which group of academic psychologists you consult, the BENEFIT to the TORIES of these new boundaries will be between 10 and 20 seats. So it will be harder for Mr Brown to gain a MAJORITY NEXT TIME, even if all else is equal. It makes sense, therefore, for him to capitalise on factors that may not necessarily be present at the moment he would otherwise judge ideal for him to GO TO THE COUNTRY.

I have already noted the lack of preparedness of the [so-called] CONSERVATIVE PARTY.

There is also a strong faction within it that wants to prise David Cameron away from the influence of his experienced BUT unpopular PARTY CHAIRMAN Francis Maud: that will provide a growing source of friction over the coming months, confirming that the

HONEYMOON period is OVER..

[Whenever the name Francis Maude is mentioned it brings to mind the 7th February 1992 when he and another Privy Counsellor Douglas Hurd - our Foreign Secretary signed the Maastricht Treaty and the latter traitor was heard to say having just signed it

'We'd better find out what we're just signed'.

How this treasonable man has been able to hold his present position as Chairman of the so-called Conservative Party -SAYS it ALL.

To continue:

It is easy to forget the Liberal Democrats, but they are crucial. Mr Brown would , presumably rather fight the plodding and uncharismatic Sir Menzies Campbell than a younger, more dynamic and more inspiring successor. There seems little chance that the LibDems will change their leader this year.

The odds on their doing so before 2009 are somewhat shorter. They hold about a dozen seats in urban Britain that should, in a good year, be labour's: and Mr Brown might need them, if he is to get his overall majority.

I know Labour is wounded and there are nastier wounds to come -whether a defeat by the SNP in May, or changes being pressed after the

CASH-FOR-HONOURS-INQUIRY,

-or growing signs of economic trouble. But Mr Brown's strategists must remind him of the importance of boldness in governing. Even if the leadership is contested, he should be in by JULY 2007. If this

NEW DAWN

- gives Labour no bounce in the POLLS, then GOD help HIM. But if it does -and given the legions of Blair-induced Labour abstainers out there, I feel IT MIGHT -then then he should call an ELECTION at the end of AUGUST2007. I know Labour has little money, but neither do the [so-called] Conservatives, SO THAT HARDLY MATTERS.

He can seek support for a new fresh, visionary programme - after all , I presume HE HAS ONE, DOESN'T HE? October4 or October 11 look good. Of course he is FREE not to take a blind bit of notice of me, and I'm sure he won't.

IN WHICH CASE I HOPE HE MAKES THE MOST OF HIS TWO BRIEF YEARS IN CHARGE OF THE TRAIN SET AND WISH HIM A LONG AND HAPPY RETIREMENT REFLECTING UPON THEM.

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JANUARY/07