MAJOR ISSUES BULLETIN
 
     
     
 

 

Lord Butler reveals massaged case for war

 

Analysis

 

compiled by

 

Mathew Hickley

Daily Mail, Thursday, July 15,2004

 

 

In his report, Lord Butler reveals how previously unseen intelligence was massaged to make the case for war. Here we analyse five key areas:

 

(1) Reliability of Intelligence

 

 

Intelligence briefings:

 

‘Intelligence on Iraq’s WMDs and ballistic missile programmes is patchy.

A complete picture of the various programmes is difficult.’ Joint Intelligence Committee, Mar 15

 

‘We have little intelligence on Iraq’s chemical and biological warfare (CBW) doctrine’ Joint Intelligence Committee, Aug 21

 

‘Intelligence remains limited. Much of this paper is based on judgment and assessment.’ Joint Intelligence Committee.’ Sept 9, 2002

 

September Dossier says:

 

‘Significant additional information is available to the Government from secret intelligence sources.  This cannot tell us about everything. However it provides a fuller picture of Iraq plans and capabilities.’

 

‘Intelligence sources need to be protected and this limits the detail that can be made available.’

 

Blair said:

 

‘What I believe the assessed intelligence has established beyond doubt is that Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological weapons.’

(Foreward to dossier.)

 

‘The intelligence picture is one accumulated over the last four years. It is extensive, detailed and authoritive.’ (To the House of Commons,Sept 24,2002.)

Daily Mail Analysis –on the above

 

The uncertainties and guesswork are played down massively. Tony Blair even uses the phrase ‘beyond doubt’.  Instead of admitting the limitations of intelligence, the dossier hints strongly that even more information is being held back.

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(2)         Long-Range Missiles

 

Intelligence briefing

 

Intelligence indicates that Saddam has identified Bahrain, Jordan, Quatar, Israel, Kuwait as targets.  Turkey could also be at risk.’-Sept9,2002

 

September Dossier says:

 

‘Iraq possesses extended-range versions of the SCUD ballistic missile which is capable of reaching Cyprus, eastern turkey, Tehran and Israel.’

 

Blair said:

 

‘Hundreds of people are employed in that programme, facilities are being built and equipment procured- usually clandestinely.’ (Speech to the Commons, Sept 24,2002)

 

 

Daily Mail Analysis:

 

The JIC made no mention of Cyprus- home to thousands of UK troops- but dossier adds it to countries the missiles are ‘capable of reaching’, suggesting UK forces are at risk.

 

(3)         WMD Warheads for Missiles.

 

Intelligence Briefings

 

‘One intelligence report suggests that Iraq has ‘lost’ the capability to develop warheads capable of disseminating chemical and biological agent. Sept9,2004.

 

September Dossier says:

 

‘It is unclear if chemical and biological warheads have been developed for these systems, but given Iraq experience on other missile systems, we judge that Iraq has the technical expertise for doing so.’

 

Blair said:

 

‘Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological weapons and has been able to extend the range of his ballistic missile programme.’(Foreword to dossier)

 

 

Daily Mail Analysis:

 

Last-minute intelligence doubts over WMD warheads ignored. Most recent JIC report does not say Saddam could deliver WMD using ballistic missiles, but dossier readers are left with impression he could.

 

(4)         45 Minutes Claim

 

Intelligence Briefings

 

‘Intelligence indicates that chemical and biological munitions could be with military units and ready for firing within 20-45 minutes.’

 

September Dossier:

 

‘Iraq has military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons including against its own Shia population. Some of these weapons are deployable within 45 minutes of an order to use them.’

 

Blair said:

 

‘Saddam has existing and active military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons which could be activated within 45 minutes, including against his own Shia population.’ (To the Commons, Sept 24, 2002.)

 

Daily Mail Analysis:

 

The language becomes more dramatic and emotive, but the dossier fails to make clear the 45 minutes claim refers to short-range battlefield weapons, not ballistic missiles.

 

(5)         Saddam’s Likely Use Of WMD?

 

Intelligence Briefings

 

‘We have little intelligence on Iraq’s CBW doctrine . (Aug.2002)

 

September Dossier:

 

‘It(the intelligence) shows that he does not regard them only as weapons of last resort.’

 

Blair said:

 

‘I am in no doubt the threat is serious and current.’

‘Saddam is continuing to develop WMD, and the ability to inflict damage upon the region and the stability of the world.

(Foreword to dossier.)

 

Daily Mail Analysis:

 

Intelligence briefing voices doubts, but says pre-emptive strike by Saddam is unlikely.

 

Tony Blair has ‘no doubts’ and speaks of a current threat to the region and the World.

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Now we know the TRUTH 

When will Tony Blair do the Honourable thing and apologise and resign?   7/04

 

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www.eutruth.org.uk

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www.thewestminsternews.co.uk

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www.speakout.co.uk

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Daniel Hannan - Forming an OPPOSITION to the EU

www.telegraph.co.uk.blogs

 

*

 

 

VOTE

MAY -2007

 

TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION

WITH THE ONLY PARTY WITH A MANDATE

TO SET YOU

 FREE

 

THE

UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY

www.ukip.org

 

TO RECLAIM YOUR DEMOCRACY DON'T VOTE FOR THE TRIPARTITE PARTIES IN WESTMINSTER

BUT

SMALL PARTIES THAT SPEAK THEIR MINDS WITHOUT SPIN AND LIES.

*

 

ONLY

PRO-PORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

WILL BRING DEMOCRACY BACK TO THE ENGLISH PEOPLE

*

Home Rule for Scotland

WHY NOT

HOME RULE for ENGLAND

 

*

MAY/07

 

[All underlined words have a separate bulletin

THE QUESTION THAT THE VOTER MUST ANSWER

 

DO YOU WISH TO BE GOVERNED BY YOUR OWN PEOPLE, LAW AND CUSTOM OR BY THE CORRUPT ,EXPENSIVE UNACCOUNTABLE AND ALIEN BUSYBODY BRUSSELS’

 

-SIMPLE IS IT NOT?