Lord Butler reveals massaged case for war
Analysis
compiled by
Mathew Hickley
Daily Mail, Thursday, July 15,2004
In
his report, Lord Butler reveals how previously unseen intelligence was massaged
to make the case for war. Here we analyse five key areas:
(1) Reliability of Intelligence
Intelligence
briefings:
‘Intelligence
on Iraq’s WMDs and ballistic missile programmes is patchy.
A
complete picture of the various programmes is difficult.’ Joint
Intelligence Committee, Mar 15
‘We
have little intelligence on Iraq’s chemical and biological warfare (CBW)
doctrine’ Joint Intelligence Committee, Aug 21
‘Intelligence
remains limited. Much of this paper is based on judgment and assessment.’ Joint
Intelligence Committee.’ Sept 9, 2002
September
Dossier says:
‘Significant
additional information is available to the Government from secret intelligence
sources. This cannot tell us about
everything. However it provides a fuller picture of Iraq plans and
capabilities.’
‘Intelligence sources need to be protected and this limits
the detail that can be made available.’
Blair
said:
‘What I believe the assessed intelligence has established
beyond doubt is that Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological
weapons.’
(Foreward to dossier.)
‘The intelligence picture is one accumulated over the last
four years. It is extensive, detailed and authoritive.’ (To the House of
Commons,Sept 24,2002.)
Daily Mail Analysis –on the above
The
uncertainties and guesswork are played down massively. Tony Blair even uses the
phrase ‘beyond doubt’. Instead of
admitting the limitations of intelligence, the dossier hints strongly that even
more information is being held back.
* *
(2)
Long-Range Missiles
Intelligence briefing
Intelligence indicates that Saddam has identified Bahrain,
Jordan, Quatar, Israel, Kuwait as targets.
Turkey could also be at risk.’-Sept9,2002
September Dossier says:
‘Iraq possesses extended-range versions of the SCUD
ballistic missile which is capable of reaching Cyprus, eastern turkey, Tehran
and Israel.’
Blair
said:
‘Hundreds of people are employed in that programme,
facilities are being built and equipment procured- usually clandestinely.’ (Speech
to the Commons, Sept 24,2002)
Daily Mail Analysis:
The
JIC made no mention of Cyprus- home to thousands of UK troops- but dossier adds
it to countries the missiles are ‘capable of reaching’, suggesting UK forces
are at risk.
(3)
WMD Warheads for Missiles.
Intelligence Briefings
‘One intelligence report suggests that Iraq has ‘lost’ the
capability to develop warheads capable of disseminating chemical and biological
agent. Sept9,2004.
September Dossier says:
‘It is unclear if chemical and biological warheads have
been developed for these systems, but given Iraq experience on other missile
systems, we judge that Iraq has the technical expertise for doing so.’
Blair
said:
‘Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological
weapons and has been able to extend the range of his ballistic missile
programme.’(Foreword to dossier)
Daily Mail Analysis:
Last-minute
intelligence doubts over WMD warheads ignored. Most recent JIC report does not
say Saddam could deliver WMD using ballistic missiles, but dossier readers are
left with impression he could.
(4)
45 Minutes Claim
Intelligence Briefings
‘Intelligence
indicates that chemical and biological munitions could be with military units
and ready for firing within 20-45 minutes.’
September Dossier:
‘Iraq
has military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons including
against its own Shia population. Some of these weapons are deployable within 45
minutes of an order to use them.’
Blair
said:
‘Saddam
has existing and active military plans for the use of chemical and biological
weapons which could be activated within 45 minutes, including against his own
Shia population.’ (To the Commons, Sept 24, 2002.)
Daily Mail Analysis:
The
language becomes more dramatic and emotive, but the dossier fails to make clear
the 45 minutes claim refers to short-range battlefield weapons, not ballistic
missiles.
(5)
Saddam’s Likely Use Of WMD?
Intelligence Briefings
‘We have little intelligence on Iraq’s CBW doctrine . (Aug.2002)
September Dossier:
‘It(the intelligence) shows that he does not regard them
only as weapons of last resort.’
Blair
said:
‘I
am in no doubt the threat is serious and current.’
‘Saddam
is continuing to develop WMD, and the ability to inflict damage upon the region
and the stability of the world.
(Foreword
to dossier.)
Daily Mail Analysis:
Intelligence
briefing voices doubts, but says pre-emptive strike by Saddam is unlikely.
Tony
Blair has ‘no doubts’ and speaks of a current threat to the region and the
World.
* *
Now
we know the TRUTH
When
will Tony Blair do the Honourable thing and apologise and resign? 7/04
* *
*
*
www.eutruth.org.uk
*
www.thewestminsternews.co.uk
*
www.speakout.co.uk
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to the EU
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VOTE
MAY -2007
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