WHY GORDON BROWN shSould GO to the
COUNTRY in OCTOBER 2007
[Daily Telegraph-January 3-2007]
Did you know that we have entered an
It is a certainty Scotland and Wales
choose their devolved assembles in May.
In the case of Scotland this could mean
the bloodiest nose yet for New Labour, with the SNP - Scottish National
Party hoping to celebrate the 300th anniversary of the UNION by BURYING
Then there are District Council
Elections in which the Conservative Party will no doubt do well , and
the expectations of whose outcome it will soon start talking down as
actively as possible. And of course, there will be the election for
the Labour leadership: Though that may be a coronation. Finally there is
the little matter of the 2007 General Election.
HANG ON, YOU CRY: doesn't he
2009? Can the hangover be that bad? Surely we are not even
halfway through this parliament? And even if Labour imposes a new PRIME
MINISTER on us during this year -as we are assured it will - then
doesn't our wonderful unwritten constitution allow him to stay in power
until the five-year-term secured by his predecessor has elapsed -as,
indeed, John Major did as recently as `1990-92?
THAT IS ALL TRUE -except the bit about the hangover
wrecking my chronology. For if Gordon Brown (and I obediently follow his
party's assumption that he will be its next leader) wants to maximise
his chances of a full MANDATE, I am in no doubt he should call an
ELECTION at the EARLIEST practicable moment after his ascent of the Red
There is , I admit, a mountain to climb
in this respect." He's about as risk-averse as the man from the PRU,"
one of his colleagues said to me yesterday "He's got all the daring of a
Scottish accountant. HE WON'T DO IT."
INTERESTINGLY, both the main parties
appear to be gripped by fear about the prospect, which in the end
becomes self-cancelling. A former Tory front-bencher told me last week
the "If Brown goes next year,
WE'RE UTTERLY SCREWED".
WHY? Because th4e whole CAMERON plan is
predicted on having until the spring of 2009 to mount a challenge to end
what would then be a dozen years of LABOUR MISRULE. It is going to
take until then for it to have developed any policies, and to have
communicated them to the
[Well!-we warned Cameron that his cosy
'lets be friends -we agree with you Tony 'policy would be his
Achilles heel as he gave the Government such an easy ride over the Iraqi
War and much else. David Cameron has NOT the toughness or the
ruthlessness to do the job. If the Conservatives want to have a chance
they need to change their friendly stubborn mule for an energetic and determined thoroughbred
horse without delay]
More to the point, it is also going to
take until then for something resembling a serious NATIONAL Conservative
Party machine to be put in place.
As I wrote here recently, there are
large stretches of urban England where the PARTY barely exists, but
where it must win seats if it is to stand any chance of forming a
GOVERNMENT. It would be optimistic to suggest that such a structure
would be in place by 2009, though there is a programme now under way
(for the first time in years) to train local party organisers. There is
no prospect though, though, of that particular ship being turned round
Mr Brown's friends say the other reason
he won't call a snap ELECTION is that the damage done to [NEW] LABOUR by
the events of the past couple of years is still too serious for anyone
to contemplate calling an ELECTION
"Bair is like a fur ball we have to
spit out," one of them told me.
"Gordon needs a couple of years of good
solid government behind him before he goes to the country."
That is , indeed, what Mr Brown
appears to be paving the way for. The recent briefing about the change
of tone we can expect when he takes over - more Stafford Cripps than
the Bee Gees, with "austerity" the watchword is indicative. So perhaps
Mr Brown's friends are right after all:
NO ELECTION THIS YEAR, OR EVEN NEXT.
This is what the TORIES are banking on.
"Brown's a Coward," one frontbencher told me. "He always has been. He's
nowhere to be seen when there's a crisis. he's waited years to be PRIME
MINISTER. He's not going to risk the OFFICE the minute he gets it just
to get his own MANDATE. After all the build-up, he doesn't want the
humiliation of being
-for only a couple of months.
In the end, though, this will come down
not so much to how risk-averse Mr Brown is, BUT to the extent of his
self-knowledge and the wisdom of his closest advisers.
Would his chances of winning a MAJORITY
be GREATER in the SUMMER or AUTUMN of 2009?
-than they would be in , say the AUTUMN
How will Middle England feel about him
after two years exposure to his particular brand of charm?
What will they think about the CRONIES
with whom he will surround himself whether or not in a climate of
Next month, the Commons will vote to
agree new parliamentary boundaries, and the next ELECTION-whenever it
comes -will be fought on them. Depending on which group of academic
psychologists you consult, the BENEFIT to the TORIES of these new
boundaries will be between 10 and 20 seats. So it will be harder for Mr
Brown to gain a MAJORITY NEXT TIME, even if all else is equal. It makes
sense, therefore, for him to capitalise on factors that may not
necessarily be present at the moment he would otherwise judge ideal for
him to GO TO THE COUNTRY.
I have already noted the lack of
preparedness of the [so-called] CONSERVATIVE PARTY.
There is also a strong faction within
it that wants to prise David Cameron away from the influence of his
experienced BUT unpopular PARTY CHAIRMAN Francis Maud: that will provide
a growing source of friction over the coming months, confirming that the
HONEYMOON period is OVER..
[Whenever the name Francis Maude is
mentioned it brings to mind the 7th February 1992 when he and another
Privy Counsellor Douglas Hurd - our Foreign Secretary signed the
Maastricht Treaty and the latter traitor was heard to say having just
'We'd better find out what we're just
How this treasonable man has been able to
hold his present position as Chairman of the so-called Conservative
Party -SAYS it ALL.
It is easy to
forget the Liberal Democrats, but they are crucial. Mr Brown would ,
presumably rather fight the plodding and uncharismatic Sir Menzies
Campbell than a younger, more dynamic and more inspiring successor.
There seems little chance that the LibDems will change their leader this
The odds on their doing so before 2009
are somewhat shorter. They hold about a dozen seats in urban Britain
that should, in a good year, be labour's: and Mr Brown might need them,
if he is to get his overall majority.
I know Labour is wounded and there are
nastier wounds to come -whether a defeat by the SNP in May, or changes
being pressed after the
-or growing signs of economic trouble.
But Mr Brown's strategists must remind him of the importance of boldness
in governing. Even if the leadership is contested, he should be in by
JULY 2007. If this
- gives Labour no bounce in the POLLS,
then GOD help HIM. But if it does -and given the legions of
Blair-induced Labour abstainers out there, I feel IT MIGHT -then then he
should call an ELECTION at the end of AUGUST2007. I know Labour has
little money, but neither do the [so-called] Conservatives,
SO THAT HARDLY MATTERS.
He can seek support for a new
fresh, visionary programme - after all , I presume HE HAS ONE, DOESN'T
HE? October4 or October 11 look good. Of course he is FREE not to take a
blind bit of notice of me, and I'm sure he won't.
IN WHICH CASE I HOPE HE MAKES THE MOST OF
HIS TWO BRIEF YEARS IN CHARGE OF THE TRAIN SET AND WISH HIM A LONG AND
HAPPY RETIREMENT REFLECTING UPON THEM.
[Font altered-Bolding &Underlining
Used-Comment in Brackets]
THE PEOPLE HAVE
SPOKEN-IS THE EU COMMISSION LISTENING?
Ditch the EU
TREATY after IRISH REJECTION
[Daily Mail-Wednesday, June
MORE THAN HALF of voters believe Britain should
drop the controversial European Treaty in the wake of its
rejection in last week's
The poll comes as the Tories launch a last-ditch
bid in the
HOUSE of LORDS
today to delay the
have signed a
within the past few days
, calling on the
NOT TO RATIFY THE BILL
[WHY DON'T YOU?]
So You Want Out
Of The EU
THEN WHY NOT SIGN THE
RENUNCIATION of EU CITIZENSHIP
Details from petition creator
With the signing of the Maastricht
Treaty the people of Britain were given
EUROPEAN and BRITISH
The extra tier of citizenship was
thrust upon the people without their consent -and in many cases
The PEOPLE of GREAT BRITAIN should be
allowed the option of opting out of the EUROPEAN CITIZENSHIP if they so
wish. The GOVERNMENT will then be able to provide those who have opted
-only such as British (not EU)
passports, driving licences and other national documents.
EU laws will also NOT APPLY to those who
HAVE OPTED OUT OF EUROPEAN CITIZENSHIP
[PETITION OPEN UNTIL
Let the people speak!
[Latest Addition - June07]
Daniel Hannan - Forming an OPPOSITION
to the EU
GORDON BROWN WANTS TRUST-BUT WHY WON'T
HE TRUST YOU?
HELL ON EARTH IN IRAQ
67% want powers back from
EU-ICM poll-June 21-2007-95%
of British people want a
SIGN TODAY ON LINE
WITH THE ONLY PARTY WITH A MANDATE
TO SET YOU
THE QUESTION THAT THE
VOTER MUST ANSWER
YOU WISH TO BE GOVERNED BY YOUR OWN PEOPLE, LAW AND CUSTOM OR BY THE
CORRUPT ,EXPENSIVE UNACCOUNTABLE AND CORRUPT ALIEN BUSYBODY BRUSSELS’
-SIMPLE IS IT NOT?
TO RECLAIM YOUR DEMOCRACY DON'T VOTE
FOR THE TRIPARTITE PARTIES IN WESTMINSTER
SMALL PARTIES THAT SPEAK THEIR MINDS
WITHOUT SPIN AND LIES.
-ITS PARLIAMENT -WALES-ITS
AWAITS ITS PARLIAMENT-WHY?
[All underlined words have a